We Have Bottomed, Next Stop Dow Jones 100,000

posted Jun 6, 2020, 7:20 PM by Intelligent Investor   [ updated Jun 8, 2020, 12:32 PM ]
The bottom of this recession was on March 23, 2020, when the Dow Jone hit 18,214. This recession was short-lived, it only lasted about 3 months. Our Gross Domestic Product (GDP) should turn positive again over the next coming months. The stock market looks like will turn into a V-shaped recovery. The economic data that came out this past Friday, June 5, 2020, regarding the unemployment number is confirmation of that prediction. Economists were expecting the unemployment number to increase to 20 million. However, as our country reopened in the midst of a pandemic, 2.5 million jobs were added instead. This is a sharp reversal of the trend.

We have bought back stocks. But we didn't buy expensive stocks. We bought stocks that have good brand name recognition, low P/E ratios of less than 20, mostly stocks with dividends, and most importantly businesses we are familiar with, whose products we use and like. We should have bought stocks way back in March and April, but things were uncertain then, we thought this recession was going to be worst than the Financial Crisis of 2008. The sooner we admit our mistake, the more money we will make in the long run. We believe the bull market is back.

Table 1: List of stocks that we bought.
 CompanyTicker Symbol  P/E ratio as of 6/5/2020 Dividend Yield as of 6/5/2020
 American ExpressAXP 16  1.57%
 Berkshire Hathaway Class BBRK.B  18 None
 CiscoCSCO  17 3.01%
 DisneyDIS 18 1.39% 
 GileadGILD 19  3.54%
 IBMIBM 13  4.94%
 JP Morgan ChaseJPM  13 3.24%
 PfizerPFE 13  4.22%
 Viacom CBSVIAC 3.87% 
 Well FargoWFC  11 6.44%
To Dow Jones 100,000 we march.

The Federal Funds Rate is currently at zero. If we use Equity Bond Theory, where we compare the rates of a stock to the rates of treasury bonds, the Dow Jones should go up to 100,000. We believe that based on the current economic environment, the Federal Funds Rates will be at zero for a very, very, very long time.

Disclosure: We own shares of American Express (AXP), Berkshire Hathaway Class B (BRK.B), Cisco (CSCO), Disney (DIS), Viacom CBS (VIAC), Gilead (GILD), International Business Machines (IBM), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Pfizer (PFE), and Wells Fargo (WFC).